Blackfinch Spring VCT PLC has released its weekly news update, providing a comprehensive summary of global events. In the UK, the Office for National Statistics reported that annual inflation, as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI), increased from 3.9% to 4.0% in December, contrary to economists' expectations of a decline to 3.8%. Additionally, accountancy firm Begbies Traynor highlighted a sharp increase in businesses in 'critical' financial distress, with nearly 47,000 UK businesses near collapse at the start of 2024, a 25% jump from the previous quarter.
In North America, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index jumped in January, reflecting recent declines in inflation, lower fuel prices, and the stock market rebound. The index is now at 78.8, just shy of its long-term average of 80. US retailers also ended the holiday shopping season on a high note, with retail sales rising 0.6% in December, slightly ahead of economists' expectations.
Moving to Europe, Eurozone CPI inflation rose from 2.4% year-on-year in November to 2.9% in December, largely driven by energy price base effects in Germany. The Eurozone also recorded a €20.3bn surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in November, compared with previous months. However, the German national statistics office reported that "multiple crises" had caused gross domestic product (GDP) to decline by 0.3% in 2023, potentially leading to the country's first two-year recession since the early 2000s.
On a global scale, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), warned that trade growth may be weaker than expected this year due to disruptions in Red Sea shipping and the Panama Canal drought. The WTO had initially forecasted trade growth to increase from 0.8% in 2023 to 3.3% in 2024, but this target now looks optimistic.
This comprehensive update provides insights into key economic indicators and trends across different regions, offering valuable information for investors and financial professionals.