Providing you with a short summary of events from around the world. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

Blackfinch Group
Monday Market Update

The ever-changing world we live in reinforces the importance
of regular up-to-date communication. This weekly news update from our
multi-asset portfolio managers provides you with a summary of global events
 for your reference and to share with clients.

Issue 135 | 20th March, 2023 

UK COMMENTARY

  • In a sign that economic pressure in the UK is increasing the number of company insolvencies in England and Wales jumped by 17% (1,783 companies) in February, as reported by the Insolvency Service. This was up from 1,518 in February 2022, and a third more than before the pandemic.
  • The Chancellor announced an annual £21bn (0.8% of gross domestic product (GDP) loosening of UK fiscal policy over the next three years in the Spring Budget. However, factoring in changes announced previously means fiscal policy over the next five years will tighten substantially.
  • According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK unemployment rate for November 2022 to January 2023 was largely unchanged at 3.7%. The number of people unemployed for over 12 months increased slightly, while job vacancies in the three-month period fell by just over 51k to 1.2mn. 

NORTH AMERICA COMMENTARY

  • In the US, consumer prices in February were 6% higher than a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This was down from an annual rate of 6.4% and continued inflation’s downward trajectory.
  • The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary reading for March dropped from 67 last month to 63.4. This was weaker than expected, and showed confidence was declining before the more recent banking sector liquidity issues.
  • US producer prices fell unexpectedly in February, retreating 0.1% from January, suggesting that cost pressures were easing. Economists had expected them to rise by 0.3%.
  • US business inventories decreased 0.1% in January, the first monthly decline since April 2021, when inventories were reeling from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. As such, the previous boom in inventory growth that dominated the last two years could be ending, as businesses work to move out unwanted inventory accumulated while demand for goods was extremely robust.

EUROPE COMMENTARY

  • Eurozone core inflation – which excludes the volatile food and fuel components – rose from 5.3% in January to 5.6% in February, according to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistics office. Additionally, the European Central Bank stuck with its plan to hike interest rates by a further 0.5% to 3.5% in a further attempt to bring inflation under control.
  • Eurozone industrial production (which comprises output from manufacturing, mining and utilities) grew 0.7% month-on-month in January, after falling 1.3% in December. The rise was driven entirely by intermediate goods (products used in the manufacture of other goods), while all other categories fell. The print was inflated by Ireland's whopping 9.3% growth, while the already-available national data pointed to a small contraction.
  • French inflation rose to 6.3% year-on-year in February, 0.1% up from the flash estimate, reflecting broad-based upward revisions across components. The increase was driven by core and food inflation, while energy, in particular oil, fell.

ASIA COMMENTARY

  • In Japan, nominal goods exports increased 7% year-on-year in February, after a 4% rise in January. Last month’s improvement was flattered by a favourable Lunar New Year calendar effect – taken together, export growth in the first two months of 2023 slowed to 5%, down from 11% in December 2022. However, the recovery in Japanese auto exports has alleviated some of the downturn.

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